Market Context
The week of April 7–11 will be remembered as the one where six weeks of energy-driven market pressure were released — briefly and partially. Oil prices plunged, and stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire, with President Trump backing off his threat to wipe out Iran's "whole civilisation." NPR The relief was immediate and sharp, but the durability was immediately questioned. Doubts arose within hours as a fresh round of intense Israeli strikes on Lebanon prompted Iran to again close the Strait of Hormuz temporarily. Fortune By Friday, the March CPI report confirmed what everyone already suspected: the energy shock has arrived in the inflation data, and unwinding it will take time.
Key Signals
The ceasefire moved markets more than fundamentals did. On Wednesday alone, the Dow surged 1,325 points — its best single day in a year — the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.8%. Brent crude posted its largest single-day decline since April 2020, tumbling 13.3% to settle at $94.75 per barrel. CNN The scale of the reaction confirmed how much geopolitical risk premium had been built into prices.
March CPI confirmed the energy shock is now in the official data. The consumer price index rose 0.9% for the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.3% — the highest since April 2024 and up sharply from 2.4% in February. Gasoline soared 21.2% and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the headline increase. CNBC Critically, core inflation excluding food and energy rose just 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually — both slightly below forecast — indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain contained. CNBC
The Fed is on hold, with economists expecting more hot prints ahead. LPL Financial's chief economist noted that the Hormuz disruption should produce another one or two hot inflation prints driven by transportation services and durable goods categories, and that "the Fed is clearly on hold for the next several meetings." Fox Business Markets are pricing little chance of a rate cut in 2026, and some officials have not ruled out a hike if inflation broadens.
The Strait remains the key variable — and it is not fully open. As of Tuesday, 187 tankers loaded with 172 million barrels of crude and refined products remained inside the Gulf. Only four ships passed through the strait on Wednesday, the fewest of the week. CNN The backlog will not clear quickly, and damage to the Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar alone reduced export capacity by 17%, with Rystad Energy estimating total regional energy infrastructure rebuild costs could exceed $25 billion. Renewable Matter
Emerging markets and risk assets staged a sharp reversal on ceasefire news. South Korea's Kospi led global gains, rising more than 10%. Taiwan, Turkey, the UAE, Mexico, Japan, and India were all up more than 5%. Gold and copper futures gained 3%, while silver surged 7%. Yahoo Finance: The US dollar index erased its entire 2026 gain on the day.
Stock Market & Other Assets Performance
Equities
The week was defined by violent intraday swings tied almost entirely to geopolitical headlines rather than fundamentals. The S&P 500 posted its best week since November, though the index slipped on Friday, CNBC as the March CPI data and lingering doubts over the ceasefire's durability capped the recovery. US equities rose sharply on Thursday — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Nasdaq up 2.8% — on ceasefire news, though Asian markets were more cautious the following morning. Patronus Partners European markets posted their best single day since March 2022 on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX soaring 5.06% and France's CAC 40 jumping 4.49%. CNN
Commodities
Brent crude settled at $94.75 per barrel on Wednesday — its largest single-session decline since 2020 — though it remains well above the roughly $73 level it held before the war began on February 28. CNN By Thursday, Brent had climbed back toward $98 as ceasefire doubts resurfaced. Patronus Partners Gold held its footing as a genuine portfolio hedge throughout the volatility, trading around $4,720 per ounce by mid-week, Patronus Partners before settling toward the end of the week.
Fixed Income & Crypto
US Treasury yields fell sharply on the ceasefire announcement, with the 10-year dropping to 4.2% — well below the 4.4% level reached at the peak of the conflict. CNN By Thursday, the 10-year had climbed back to 4.30% as the situation remained unresolved. Patrón Partners Bitcoin traded around $68,611 by week's end, Yahoo Finance, continuing its pattern of moving in line with broader risk appetite rather than acting as a haven.
Market Movers & Shakers
The week's clearest lesson was that the ceasefire didn't lift all boats equally. Airlines with fuel hedges and premium demand held up; energy names that had priced in prolonged disruption gave back gains fast; and application-layer software barely participated in the rally at all — a sign that AI valuation concerns haven't been resolved by geopolitical relief. The buy signals heading into bank earnings week are straightforward: follow the institutions that benefited from six weeks of extreme volatility.
One Insight
The market's reaction this week reveals an important structural shift in how capital is being positioned. The ceasefire triggered one of the largest single-day equity rallies of the year — but the subsequent partial reversal, the CPI print, and the still-stranded tanker fleet all point to the same conclusion: the damage from six weeks of energy disruption does not resolve with a diplomatic announcement.
Economists have described the likely price dynamics as "up like a rocket and down like a feather" — prices for gasoline and household goods are quick to rise during a shock but slow to fall, even after the supply disruption ends. CNBC The Fed faces a version of the same asymmetry in its policy response. It cannot cut into a 3.3% headline print, even if it believes the core story is more benign. Even if the war ends and gasoline prices return to pre-war levels, core inflation is likely to creep toward 3.0% by year-end due to continued tariff effects and rising healthcare costs Kiplinger a dynamic that keeps rate cuts firmly off the near-term agenda. The result is a market that rallied hard on relief, but has not yet priced the full duration of the consequences.
What We’re Watching (next 7–14 days)
Strait of Hormuz transit volumes: The practical test of whether the ceasefire holds is tanker flow data. Until daily transits return to pre-war levels, the energy risk premium remains in play.
Fed communication: Several officials have flagged possible hikes if inflation broadens. Speeches this week will be parsed for any shift in that framing.
Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing (April 16): The Fed Chair nominee faces the Senate Banking Committee. Markets will assess his posture on the rate path and balance sheet strategy going into a potentially inflationary period. Fulcrum Macro
PPI data (April 14): Producer prices will offer an early read on whether energy costs are feeding through into the supply chain more broadly.
Next week's major earnings:
The major US banks report Q1 2026 results across the week: Goldman Sachs on Monday (April 13), JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock on Tuesday (April 14), and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday (April 15). Alphastreet. These reports will be the first opportunity to assess how the Iran conflict, elevated rates, and market volatility affected trading revenues, investment banking pipelines, and loan-loss provisioning in the first quarter. Netflix and Johnson & Johnson are also among the notable reporters later in the week. CNBC
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